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Investor sentiment ended little changed from the prior week across all the markets we follow. Global Developed markets ex-US investors remained bullish, followed by a strongly positive sentiment among Japanese and Australian investors.
Sentiment declined globally in the past two weeks as investors face an increasingly negative geopolitical world that really burns their toast. Sentiment had risen since November last year on the belief that both the Fed and the ECB would start to cut interest rates as early as this March. The mood reversal of the past two weeks indicates that most of them now acknowledge that this was less of theory and more of a guess. They have now set the May FOMC meeting as the absolute bar-is-closing, last call time limit for a rate cut. Global Developed ex-US investors have retained their bullish hopes, despite weak economic data out of Germany in the prior week. Their thinking seems to be that if the US can avoid a recession, so can the rest of the (developed) world, even though that is 100 percent not grounded in reality as most of the time in the past 20 years, the opposite was true.
In the initial version of the press release on December 1, the addition of BANCA MONTE DEI PASCHI and the deletion of AIR FRANCE-KLM was missing.
Investor sentiment continued to recover last week with only one market (Asia ex-Japan) remaining bearish as of last Friday. Investors in China remained bullish (or hopeful?), despite the market’s reluctance to rise without further evidence of a credible economic recovery. Elsewhere, sentiment was still negative in Global developed markets, Global emerging markets, and Europe, neutral in Global developed ex-US markets, Japan, and the US, and turned positive in Australia and the UK.
Investor sentiment had a muted reaction to the previous’ week’s avoidance of a US shutdown and better than expected Chinese PMI data. Sentiment ended the week bearish in global developed markets, strongly negative (and almost bearish) in the US, Europe, and Japan (despite a still weakening USD/JPY), and neutral (but weaker than last week) in Asia ex-Japan, global emerging markets, and the UK.
Investor sentiment was mostly unchanged last week, except in the US and Global Developed markets where it worsened, reaching bearish levels. In China and Emerging markets, sentiment improved further, turning bullish in the former, thanks to better manufacturing PMI data for August and talks of a third stimulus package by the authorities.
Investor sentiment rose moderately across all markets we follow except the US, the UK, and (by extension) global developed markets, where sentiment continued to weaken but has stopped short of turning full-on bearish, ahead of key interest rate decisions by the Fed and the BoE this week.
Investor sentiment has settled in the neutral zone across all markets we follow, unable to resist the call from low volatility levels, but unwilling to directionally commit amidst an uncertain macro picture. The only thing investors can confidently say about returns right now is that they'd like more of it. Last week’s Jackson Hole gathering of major central bankers didn’t really clarify things for them either. Released statements weren’t so obviously wrong. But then again, they weren’t so obvious, period.
STOXX Ltd. today announced the results of the regular annual review of the STOXX Blue-Chip Indices, among them the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 50, and STOXX Nordic 30 indices.
Investor sentiment fell another notch last week in all markets we follow, taking stock prices down with it — perhaps we are seeing a new adage in the making: “Sell in July and don’t ask why”?
Investor sentiment continued to decline in all markets we track except in the UK, where investors remained bullish and, in the US, where sentiment became strongly positive but failed to turn bullish for the second time this month.
Investor sentiment and markets agreed to disagree last week, ending in a state of divergence in all countries we follow except in the UK.
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