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Sentiment declined globally in the past two weeks as investors face an increasingly negative geopolitical world that really burns their toast. Sentiment had risen since November last year on the belief that both the Fed and the ECB would start to cut interest rates as early as this March. The mood reversal of the past two weeks indicates that most of them now acknowledge that this was less of theory and more of a guess. They have now set the May FOMC meeting as the absolute bar-is-closing, last call time limit for a rate cut. Global Developed ex-US investors have retained their bullish hopes, despite weak economic data out of Germany in the prior week. Their thinking seems to be that if the US can avoid a recession, so can the rest of the (developed) world, even though that is 100 percent not grounded in reality as most of the time in the past 20 years, the opposite was true.
Investor sentiment held on to a mostly bullish feeling over the holiday period. Four (Asia ex-Japan, Global Developed Markets ex-US, Global Emerging Markets, and the UK) of the five markets that ended 2023 with a bullish sentiment, started 2024 feeling the same way. On Friday last week, they were joined by a fifth market, as Chinese investors (substituting for European investors, three weeks ago), raised their hopes for the fourth time in the last six months, for that all elusive economic stimulus package from the authorities.
Country risk in developed markets has risen across the board; Diversification ratio declines on higher asset correlations; US Sectors with Momentum have shifted.
Investor sentiment continued to recover last week with only one market (Asia ex-Japan) remaining bearish as of last Friday. Investors in China remained bullish (or hopeful?), despite the market’s reluctance to rise without further evidence of a credible economic recovery. Elsewhere, sentiment was still negative in Global developed markets, Global emerging markets, and Europe, neutral in Global developed ex-US markets, Japan, and the US, and turned positive in Australia and the UK.
Investor sentiment was mostly unchanged last week, except in the US and Global Developed markets where it worsened, reaching bearish levels. In China and Emerging markets, sentiment improved further, turning bullish in the former, thanks to better manufacturing PMI data for August and talks of a third stimulus package by the authorities.
STOXX Ltd. today announced the results of the regular annual review of the STOXX Blue-Chip Indices, among them the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 50, and STOXX Nordic 30 indices.
Investor sentiment fell another notch last week in all markets we follow, taking stock prices down with it — perhaps we are seeing a new adage in the making: “Sell in July and don’t ask why”?
Investor sentiment continued to decline in all markets we track except in the UK, where investors remained bullish and, in the US, where sentiment became strongly positive but failed to turn bullish for the second time this month.
Investor sentiment continued to improve in most markets we track last week on the back of better-than-expected Q1 earnings reports.
The intense dissonance between rising markets and falling investor sentiment over the past month eased last week in Asia ex-Japan, Australia, China, Global Emerging Markets, Japan and the US through a little give-and-take from both sides.
One year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, these are the top 10 takeaways from its effects on European equity markets.
Investor sentiment was little changed last week, remaining negative in the US, global developed and global emerging markets; becoming slightly more positive in Europe and Japan; turning bearish in Asia ex-Japan; and staying bearish in China.
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