Decomposition of the ROOF Ratios (both Style and Sector variants) show that the main driver of this past week’s increase in sentiment was declining volatility and not a penchant for more risk-tolerant styles or sectors (removing the two risk metrics show a decline in sentiment last week).
Standalone equity volatility in Qontigo’s global multi-asset class model portfolio has dropped by a third since the beginning of February—yet the current predicted risk for the total portfolio of 6.6% is only marginally lower than the 7.2% of 11 weeks ago. The main reasons for this are that share and bond prices are no longer negatively correlated, while the recent dollar weakening has once more amplified the returns of non-US stocks.
Sentiment remains stuck in neutral in all major markets except China. Investors have gone from convincingly bullish in Q4, 2020 after multiple vaccine news, to fence-sitters and bet-hedgers so far in 2021.
Much has been written about the spectacular comeback of Value stocks. But has this also been reflected in the credit market? The steep rise of the Value factor from the Axioma Factor-based Fixed Income Risk Model over the past 14 months seems to suggest that the answer is yes.
The FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google) were the market darlings of the COVID-19 Pandemic, attaining almost cult-like status with investors in 2020. Only Microsoft and Tesla came close to winning such adulation.