A new Qontigo white paper analyzes the effect of changes in term spreads, or the difference between long- and short-term sovereign bond yields, on the performance of the iSTOXX Developed and Emerging Markets ex USA PK VN index. The findings show a rise in term spreads has, overall, helped returns for the global real estate index since 2019, but the relationship varies depending on regional exposure and period.
Sentiment declined sharply last week, becoming negative in Asia ex-Japan, Japan and developed Europe, with the latter ending bearish for the first time since early April. We continue to see a divergence of sentiment between developed- and emerging-market investors, with the former remaining bearish and the latter increasingly bullish.
Sentiment remained negative in the US and developed Europe last week, and bearish in global developed markets. Hopes for further monetary and fiscal stimulus out of China managed to keep sentiment positive in Asia ex-Japan, global emerging markets and China, for the time being.
A new Qontigo white paper runs the numbers on the iSTOXX Developed and Emerging Markets ex USA PK VN, a global real estate index, to understand the relationship between expected inflation in the US, Europe and the UK, and index returns. The findings show that the sector has represented a good overall inflation hedge over the last couple of years, although regional and portfolio considerations can create exceptions.
Real estate has long had the reputation of being at least a partial hedge against inflation, since both rental income and property values typically respond positively to inflationary pressures. The iSTOXX Developed and Emerging Markets ex USA PK VN Index has lived up to this reputation historically and is continuing to do so in the current inflationary environment.