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News & Research
Most Recent News & Research
Investor sentiment changed only marginally last week. Asia ex-Japan and Global Emerging markets decoupled from China, becoming less bearish. However, Chinese investors remain bearish ahead of the National People’s Congress this week.
China Risk Climbing Higher Still; China Affecting EM Risk; US Risk Spreads Widen.
Analytics | Portfolio Risk Management
Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Highlights | Week Ended February 23, 2024
Gilt yields tumble as BoE gets “comfortable” with rate cuts; Strong tech earnings boost European stocks and high yield bonds; Share prices decouple from FX and interest rates, reducing portfolio risk.
Investor sentiment was little changed last week ahead of key inflation data this week. Globally (except in China), how central bankers ‘feel’ about inflation continues to rent vast amounts of space in investors’ head.
US market volatility keeps falling despite market gyrations; US Small Cap’s specific risk soars, led by SMCI; In a sharp reversal, predicted risk climbs in the UK.
Investor sentiment ended little changed from the prior week across all the markets we follow. Global Developed markets ex-US investors remained bullish, followed by a strongly positive sentiment among Japanese and Australian investors.
Most factors are “behaving”, but not equally across regions; Trading volume reaches a 12-month high in the US, driven by Info Tech; Where is the Momentum?
Analytics | Portfolio Risk Management
Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Highlights | Week Ended February 9, 2024
Short Treasury yields surge as Powell puts March rate-cut hopes to final rest; Stock-market record squeezes credit spreads to 21-month low; Portfolio risk drops further as stocks and bonds decouple.
Risk Falling Off a Cliff (not in CHINA!); Small is Good Again (except in the USA & Japan); Breadth Still Narrow – beware.
Analytics | Portfolio Risk Management
Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Highlights | Week Ended February 2, 2024
Strong labor-market report smashes March rate-cut hopes but boosts the dollar; Short Gilt yields rise despite dovish signals from BoE; Portfolio risk falls further as US stocks book fourth week of gains.
Investor sentiment ended mixed last week, rising in the US, Europe, Japan, Global Developed, and Global Developed ex-US markets, but declining in Asia ex-Japan, Australia, Global Emerging Markets, the UK, and China. Investors in the latter are becoming increasingly bearish in the face of a silent response from the authorities. Sentiment in the major markets of the US, Europe, and Japan continues to be driven by the pivot industrial complex, and despite last week’s push-back from central bankers, investors remain convinced that the future direction of interest rates has decidedly pivoted to the downside now. #NotIfButWhen.
Analytics | Portfolio Risk Management
Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Highlights | Week Ended January 26, 2024
Bund curve steepens over disinflation hopes; Persistent UK inflation puts question mark on early rate cuts; Lower FX and interest-rate volatility reduce portfolio risk.