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News & Research
Most Recent News & Research
China Risk Climbing Higher Still; China Affecting EM Risk; US Risk Spreads Widen.
Analytics | Portfolio Risk Management
Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Highlights | Week Ended February 23, 2024
Gilt yields tumble as BoE gets “comfortable” with rate cuts; Strong tech earnings boost European stocks and high yield bonds; Share prices decouple from FX and interest rates, reducing portfolio risk.
Investor sentiment was little changed last week ahead of key inflation data this week. Globally (except in China), how central bankers ‘feel’ about inflation continues to rent vast amounts of space in investors’ head.
US market volatility keeps falling despite market gyrations; US Small Cap’s specific risk soars, led by SMCI; In a sharp reversal, predicted risk climbs in the UK.
Investor sentiment ended little changed from the prior week across all the markets we follow. Global Developed markets ex-US investors remained bullish, followed by a strongly positive sentiment among Japanese and Australian investors.
Most factors are “behaving”, but not equally across regions; Trading volume reaches a 12-month high in the US, driven by Info Tech; Where is the Momentum?
Analytics | Portfolio Risk Management
Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Highlights | Week Ended February 9, 2024
Short Treasury yields surge as Powell puts March rate-cut hopes to final rest; Stock-market record squeezes credit spreads to 21-month low; Portfolio risk drops further as stocks and bonds decouple.
Risk Falling Off a Cliff (not in CHINA!); Small is Good Again (except in the USA & Japan); Breadth Still Narrow – beware.
Analytics | Portfolio Risk Management
Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Highlights | Week Ended February 2, 2024
Strong labor-market report smashes March rate-cut hopes but boosts the dollar; Short Gilt yields rise despite dovish signals from BoE; Portfolio risk falls further as US stocks book fourth week of gains.
Investor sentiment ended mixed last week, rising in the US, Europe, Japan, Global Developed, and Global Developed ex-US markets, but declining in Asia ex-Japan, Australia, Global Emerging Markets, the UK, and China. Investors in the latter are becoming increasingly bearish in the face of a silent response from the authorities. Sentiment in the major markets of the US, Europe, and Japan continues to be driven by the pivot industrial complex, and despite last week’s push-back from central bankers, investors remain convinced that the future direction of interest rates has decidedly pivoted to the downside now. #NotIfButWhen.
Analytics | Portfolio Risk Management
Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor Highlights | Week Ended January 26, 2024
Bund curve steepens over disinflation hopes; Persistent UK inflation puts question mark on early rate cuts; Lower FX and interest-rate volatility reduce portfolio risk.
Sentiment declined globally in the past two weeks as investors face an increasingly negative geopolitical world that really burns their toast. Sentiment had risen since November last year on the belief that both the Fed and the ECB would start to cut interest rates as early as this March. The mood reversal of the past two weeks indicates that most of them now acknowledge that this was less of theory and more of a guess. They have now set the May FOMC meeting as the absolute bar-is-closing, last call time limit for a rate cut. Global Developed ex-US investors have retained their bullish hopes, despite weak economic data out of Germany in the prior week. Their thinking seems to be that if the US can avoid a recession, so can the rest of the (developed) world, even though that is 100 percent not grounded in reality as most of the time in the past 20 years, the opposite was true.