News & Research

Worries about inflation and higher interest rates pressured investor sentiment globally, halting and even reversing its recent rise in most markets. US investor sentiment declined, ending the week with one foot in bearish territory.

Decomposition of the ROOF Ratios (both Style and Sector variants) show that the main driver of this past week’s increase in sentiment was declining volatility and not a penchant for more risk-tolerant styles or sectors (removing the two risk metrics show a decline in sentiment last week).

Sentiment remains stuck in neutral in all major markets except China. Investors have gone from convincingly bullish in Q4, 2020 after multiple vaccine news, to fence-sitters and bet-hedgers so far in 2021.

The FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google) were the market darlings of the COVID-19 Pandemic, attaining almost cult-like status with investors in 2020. Only Microsoft and Tesla came close to winning such adulation.

US investor sentiment recovery stalls midway into the Neutral zone. European investor sentiment makes an attempt at regaining the bullish zone. Global and Asia ex-Japan investor sentiment recovery suffers from lack of confidence.

US markets seem in Déjà vu mode with sentiment following a similar pattern of recovery. European investor sentiment leads other regions to the top of the neutral zone. Global and Asia ex-Japan investor sentiment recovery settles in the Neutral zone.

The first quarter of 2021 provides an excellent opportunity to see how investor sentiment—as measured by the Sector ROOF ratio—can be leveraged in a market under a rotation scenario.

Helped by the repeated promise of continuous stimulus from the Fed and the Biden administration, US investor sentiment began to stage a rebound from deep in bearish territory, to the edge of the neutral zone (top chart). In recent weeks, a deteriorating sentiment had capped market’s advances, but that downward pull seems to weaken last week with both ROOF ratios recovering some ground, ending just shy of the neutral zone.

US markets reached new record highs last week, but sentiment remains risk-averse. European markets seem to anticipate a stimulus-induced rebound in sentiment. Global and Asia ex-Japan investor sentiment recovers slightly to end week in neutral.

In this research piece, we demonstrate the value of the Axioma Worldwide Equity Linked Factor Risk Model (WWLM4-MH or ‘Global Linked Model’) for solving two very common analytical problems when managing global portfolios. Global equity mandates are often broken into specialist mandates segregated by geography.

Fed Chairman Powell has reiterated his insouciance about inflationary pressures and the Biden administration is already working on its next fiscal stimulus package.

Sentiment continued to decline ending in bearish territory for all major markets except the UK. Markets seem to be responding to the recent lack of risk appetite as they did back in October 2020.