ROOF Highlights

Investor sentiment rose for the fifth consecutive week after bottoming out in late October/early November, ending neutral in all markets, except in the UK where it turned bullish for the first time since June, and in China where it remained bullish. Last week marked a turning point for most markets (except Japan and China) as uncertainty about the direction of monetary policy, which had yet to abdicate its leadership role in dictating sentiment for the past three years, declined in response to guidance from central bankers and  improved transparency and predictability on the macro side.

Investor sentiment continued to recover last week with only one market (Asia ex-Japan) remaining bearish as of last Friday. Investors in China remained bullish (or hopeful?), despite the market’s reluctance to rise without further evidence of a credible economic recovery. Elsewhere, sentiment was still negative in Global developed markets, Global emerging markets, and Europe, neutral in Global developed ex-US markets, Japan, and the US, and turned positive in Australia and the UK.

Investor sentiment improved markedly last week with only two markets (Asia ex-Japan and Europe) out of seven previously, unable to complete their recovery on time and ending the week still bearish. Sentiment in Global developed markets, global developed ex-US markets, global emerging markets, Japan, and the US rose from their bearish levels in the previous week to end last week still negative but seemingly on a strong recovery path.

Investor sentiment recovered from its lows last week but remains bearish in seven of the ten markets we follow. Of the three markets where investors were not bearish, sentiment rose from negative to neutral in the UK and Australia but declined slightly in China, after the world’s second largest economy fell into deflation last month – sparking fears that the tepid recovery so far, may have just been an illusionary blip.

Investor sentiment remained bearish last week across most markets we follow but halted its descent, allowing markets to enjoy a brief relief rally. Of the three markets where investors weren’t bearish, sentiment turned negative in Australia and in the UK, but rose in China, where it became increasingly bullish after recent data hinted at a bottoming out of the economy – following repeated stimulus efforts from the authorities.

Investor sentiment remains bearish in seven out of ten markets we follow, falling to new year-to-date lows in Asia ex-Japan, Global Developed markets, and the US. Elsewhere, UK investors managed to hold on to a neutral stance but with a growing negative tilt, Australian investors turned negative but not yet bearish, and Chinese investors grew bullish, for the first time since late August, on early signs that their economy may have bottomed out.

Investor sentiment declined further last week in light of the ongoing conflict in the middle east, rising oil prices, and surging treasuries yield in the US. Investors are now bearish in seven of the ten markets we follow, neutral in two (Australia and the UK), and positive in only one (China), where hopes for a further stimulus package from the authorities is keeping investors waiting patiently, it seems.

Investor sentiment declined last week in all markets we follow except China, where investors returned from a week-long holiday to the sound of “further stimulus is coming”, boosting their mood from neutral to positive. Sentiment in the UK also bucked the trend by remaining neutral. Elsewhere, investors turned bearish in Global developed markets, Global developed ex-US markets, and Europe.

Investor sentiment had a muted reaction to the previous’ week’s avoidance of a US shutdown and better than expected Chinese PMI data. Sentiment ended the week bearish in global developed markets, strongly negative (and almost bearish) in the US, Europe, and Japan (despite a still weakening USD/JPY), and neutral (but weaker than last week) in Asia ex-Japan, global emerging markets, and the UK.

Investor sentiment saw a late week rebound in all markets we follow, except in Japan and global ex-US markets where it remained unchanged (China was closed on Friday). Concerns about the slowing global economy were made worse in the last two weeks, by worries about a potential US government lockdown and slowing Chinese manufacturing activity.

Investor sentiment was mostly unchanged last week, except in the US and Global Developed markets where it worsened, reaching bearish levels. In China and Emerging markets, sentiment improved further, turning bullish in the former, thanks to better manufacturing PMI data for August and talks of a third stimulus package by the authorities.

Investor sentiment was mostly unchanged last week, except in the US and Global Developed markets where it worsened, reaching bearish levels. In China and Emerging markets, sentiment improved further, turning bullish in the former, thanks to better manufacturing PMI data for August and talks of a third stimulus package by the authorities.